Bob Lung guides you through the Perfectly Consistent Draft with the help of FantasyPros.com Draft Simulator and the Tier Draft List in the 2017 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide! Follow him on Twitter @bob_lung

In our continuing series of giving you guidance on how to draft a perfect team (as per the FantasyPros rankings) and consistent team (from Big Guy Fantasy Sports Consistency Tools), we take a look at drafting from the No. 10 position in a 12-team PPR snake draft.

Fantasy Draft Day can be one of most exciting or most horrifying days in a Fantasy owner’s life each year! It’s exciting for those who prepare by spending hours of going through magazines, websites, etc. It’s horrifying for those who don’t have time to prep because LIFE gets in the way.

Well, worry no more, my friends! I’m here to help you give you a winning draft, REGARDLESS of the position that you choose from!

My friends at FantasyPros have some great tools to help you in your Fantasy Football draft preparation. One of them is the Draft Simulator. I am going to use this tool in conjunction with a tool from the Big Guy Fantasy Sports site called the Tier Draft List. The Tier Draft List is a one page Excel file that groups each position by Tier (RB1, RB2, etc.) and then separates the Tier into Grade A, B, C and D. Each Tier correlates to an Expected Consistency Rating or how consistent that player should be in 2017. This is explained in the Guide.

By utilizing the Draft Simulator, I will perform a mock draft from each position and present the results as ranked by the FantasyPros expert rankings. Upon presenting that the mock draft results are ranked #1 by FantasyPros, I will also show you why it’s a great draft because of the consistency ratings of the players I drafted.

We start with a mock draft from position: PICK # 10

{mprestriction ids="10,11,13"}

The Results

Below is the embed code from the FantasyPros site showing the results:

As you can see from the results, the team drafted ranked #1 by the FantasyPros expert rankings. And while, that’s certainly important that our drafted team scores more points than any other team, it’s also important that the players are consistently scoring those points.

Roster with Consistency Rankings

Pick # Player Position Tier Draft ECR    
1.10 Melvin Gordon, LAC RB RB1A 80%    
2.3 Dez Bryant, DAL WR WR1A 80%    
3.10 Isaiah Crowell, CLE RB RB1B 75%    
4.3 Tom Brady, NE QB QB1A 80%    
5.10 Greg Olsen, CAR TE TE1A 70%    
6.3 Julian Edelman, NE WR WR2B 65%    
7.10 Devante Parker, MIA WR WR3B 60% 73% Starters
8.3 Frank Gore, IND RB RB2B 60%    
9.10 Marvin Jones, DET WR WR4C 55%    
10.3 Terrance West, BAL RB RB3C 55%    
11.10 Derrick Henry, TEN RB RB3C 55%    
12.3 Dak Prescott QB QB1B 65%    
13.10 Houston Texans DEF        
14.3 Cooper Kupp, LAR RB RB5D 50%    
15.10 Matt Prater, DET K     57% Bench

Overall, the consistency is very good for this team. The Starters overall consistency is 73%! That’s outstanding! If your starters can average over 65%, that’s a solid team. The Bench scoring a 57% consistency average is good, but not bad based on the second place finish. (Note: There is no consistency ratings for Kickers and Defense).

So, let’s break down the starters.

STARTERS

One thing that I always stress to Fantasy owners is to make sure that you draft your CORE starters (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE) within the first seven rounds (depending on your league starter lineup). Many will argue and throw out their “crazy” strategies like ZERO-RB or four straight WR’s or no QB’s until Round 8! Whatever! Don’t be that person!

The starters all have a grade of Tier 1-3 and Grade of A or B. 

When you get near the end of the first round, you can double up on running backs or receivers. However, I meant for a top consistent back and receiver in Gordon and Bryant.  Then I added some top consistent players like Tom Brady and Greg Olsen. I rounded out the team with very solid and consistent players like Crowell and Edelman. Parker is my flier here but I like his potential for consistency with Cutler at quarterback.

This is very important to try and get these tiers for your top seven starters.

In summary, this is an excellent draft for starters with a #2 ranking by FantasyPros and a consistency rating of 73%.

BENCH

Drafting a solid and consistent bench is just as important as your starters. Yes, there will be underperformers and injuries, but by having a consistent bench when they’re playing gives you depth for possible trades to improve your starters, in case one of them get injured.

In this draft, I have covered a backup to all of the important positions.

In summary, the FantasyPros ranking was #2 overall, but more important is the 57% bench consistency rating. Which isn’t great, but you can easily improve this on the waiver wire during the season!

OVERALL

The FantasyPros ranking of 96 out of 100 and an A rating says it all! This is an excellent draft, both in total points and consistency!

If you’re interested more in the Tier Draft List and Fantasy Football Consistency, go to www.BigGuyFantasySports.com and we will help you improve your Fantasy teams in 2017!

{/mprestriction}

Our Big Guy informs you who to BUY for those BYE weeks in your draft! Ron Rigney tells you the quarterbacks to draft to replace your QB1 when he’s on a bye week! Follow him @therealmaday!

Week 5

Top 36 on bye:  Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Emanuel Sanders, Michael Thomas, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder

Week 5 Target: Cole Beasley vs. Green Bay

In 2016 the Packers were bad against the pass in real life, and they also allowed a truckload of points to the wide receiver position.  They allowed the second most passing yards per game (269.2), and also the second most yards allowed for the season to wideouts (3017).  In addition to those totals, the Pack gave up the third most plays of 20+ yards (58).  While Beasley came in our final Consistency rankings at 33rd last season, and coming up with seven clutch games, none of those came at home against a bad defense.  I look for that to change in Week 5.  The Packers did little to address their secondary, and with Zeke Elliott out for the first six games, the Cowboys will need all the help they can get to replace that production.  Short passes to Beasley are a way to do that.  Depending on the size of your league, Beasley is a guy you may be able to pluck off waivers after your draft.  Nice value here!

Week 5 Target:  Kenny Stills vs. Tennessee

Stills is not a guy I am targeting in my drafts, however, this matchup at home against the Titans is juicy for a few reasons.  Tennessee allowed the most receptions to wide receivers in 2016 (243), and the most yards (3053) to the position as well.  Jonathan Cyprien and Logan Ryan were brought in to address the secondary, and while they will help, I am not sure if they can fix all of the issues in the back third of the Titans defense.  One thing Stills can do is catch the deep ball.  In 2016, he had four catches of 40 yards or more, and it just so happens the Titans allowed 12 of those on the season.  Of his 10 Clutch games in 2016, Stills recorded three of them at home against bad defenses, and was able to sneak into our Consistency top 30 by the end of the season as he finished 29th.  While I feel it is going to be difficult for him to repeat his number of Clutch games, as well as finish in the Consistency top 30, he is a player that is a perfect streaming option against bad defenses, and this matchup suits him well. 

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Week 6

Top 36 on bye:  A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin

Week 6 Target:  Stefon Diggs vs. Packers

Let’s pick on the Packers, again shall we?  I look for Green Bay’s secondary to be bad again this year, and I look for Diggs to exploit that in Week 6.  The Pack was near the bottom in just about every important pass defense category, both in real life, and in fantasy.  Little was done to address it, and it is a matchup I am going to exploit all season.  Diggs’ 2016 season was a disappointment, as many thought he would be Sam Bradford’s favorite target, yet Adam Thielen took over that role.  Diggs collected seven Clutch games in 2016, and three of those came against bad defenses.  He currently sits as our WR 45, and will get to play against this Packer secondary twice in 2017, and should be in your lineup in both games. 

Week 6 Target:  Eric Decker vs. Indianapolis

While the Colts’ addressed the secondary in the first two rounds of the draft, rookies are inconsistent (the Consistency Guide says so!).  While Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson are a nice beginning to a young foundation on defense, it will be a season of ups and downs for the youngsters.  The Colts allowed wideouts to catch 213 balls for 2678 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2016.  In 2015, Decker was as consistent as they come, racking up 15 Clutch games.  2016 was a lost season due to injury, however, Decker recorded two Clutch games in three games played, a nice percentage, albeit a small sample size.  Over the past three seasons, Decker has an 83% Clutch Rating at home against bad defenses.  While I think the Colts are headed in the right direction, 2016 will be full of ups and downs.  I look for this to be a long day for the Indy defense as Marcus Mariota is a year older, and has more weapons.  Start Decker and reap the benefits. 

 

Week 7

Top 36 on bye:  DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate

Week 7 Target:  Kenny Britt vs. Tennessee

With this being a light week for byes, I’m taking a bit or a flyer.  Barring injury, hopefully your wideouts will be solid for this week.  Britt is now a Cleveland Brown, and we know the QB situation is shaky at best.  However, he was able to rank 26th in Consistency at the end of 2016 with Jared Goff tossing the rock, so there is some potential here.  At the end of last season, Britt was able to record 10 Clutch Games, three coming against bad defenses.  Although the Browns will be better on defense, they will still allow some yards.  The Titans offense is going to be able to score, so this could open up more chances in the passing game for Britt.  The Titans defense allowed the third most passing yards per game in the league in 2016 (269.2), the most receptions to the wide receiver position (243), and the second most fantasy points to the position as well.  If you do need to pop somebody into your starting lineup, Britt is a nice option for Week 7. 

 

Week 8

Top 36 on bye:  Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall

Week 8 Target: Zay Jones vs. Oakland

Boy, it begins to get dicey at wideout in Week 8 with a bunch of top options getting the week off. This spot was originally saved for Anquan Boldin, but he decided to retire about two hours after I wrote this.  Insert Zay Jones.  I like this rookie.  I like him even more that he has Sammy Watkins and Boldin gone.  At this point he is just a Jordan Matthews injury away from being the lead dog.  As always, he is a rookie, so do not expect him to be ultra-consistent.  I do like him in this matchup against a bad Raiders secondary.   The Raiders did little to improve a secondary that allowed the 10th most yards to wideouts in 2016 (2702).  In real life, they allowed 7.9 average yards per attempt to opposing offenses, which was third worst in the league.    

Week 8 Target:  John Ross vs. Indianapolis

As I have said before, I like the foundation the Colts are building on defense.  However, counting on rookies in the secondary could cost them often in 2016, as they learn the ropes of the NFL game.  We all know John Ross is a burner, and I think the conditions are such that he will harass the Colts secondary.  Based on our Consistency system, the Colts would rank as an average defense, but just barely.  Their 2678 yards allowed to wideouts ranked them 12th worst in the league.  Indy also allowed 55 plays of 20+ yards in the passing game in 2016, and this is where I think Ross can hurt their defense.  The scouting report verifies the vertical threat he is, but his route running needs some work.  Therefore, I do not think he will be a Consistent option in his rookie season, due to that, and him being a first-year player, however, he can be a useful option during bye weeks. 

 

Week 9

Top 36 on bye:  Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant

Week 9 Target:  Jeremy Maclin at Tennessee

While I am not a huge Jeremy Maclin fan, I do have a soft spot for him, as he helped me to a championship a few years ago.  That said, I am separating my warm, fuzzy feelings, and giving you him as a solid bye week plug.  While his consistency numbers have steadily declined, I feel the catch volume can be there since Mike Wallace’s game is vertical.  Over the past two seasons, Maclin has tallied two Clutch Games on the road against bad defenses.  I am also not a huge Joe Flacco fan, but I feel he will be able to get the ball to Maclin a little better than Alex Smith was able to. The Titans defense allowed the third most passing yards per game in the league in 2016 (269.2), the most receptions to the wide receiver position (243), and the second most fantasy points to the position as well.

Week 9 Target:  Kenny Golloday at Green Bay

Yet another rookie on this list.  However, this rookie is a big boy.  Golloday goes 6’4” 218 lbs., and makes for a big red zone target for Matthew Stafford.  The youngster has shown out so far in the pre-season, and I think he will terrorize the Green Bay secondary as well.  The Pack gave up the second most yards to wide receivers in 2016 (3017), the most touchdowns (26), and the most fantasy points (462.40).  Green Bay made very few changes to make the secondary better, so they will still be a nice matchup for opposing pass offenses.  Golloday obviously does not have any Consistency data yet, but do not expect him to be wildly consistent.  Golloday also has to share the ball with the likes of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron, but can still be a nice play in weeks you need a wideout.


Week 10

Top 36 on bye:  Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffery

Week 10 Target:  Kenny Stills at Carolina

Stills can catch the deep ball.  In 2016, he had four catches of 40 yards or more, and it just so happens the Panthers allowed 11 of those on the season.  Of his 10 Clutch games in 2016, Stills recorded three of them against bad defenses, and was able to sneak into our Consistency top 30 by the end of the season as he finished 29th.  While I feel it is going to be difficult for him to repeat his number of Clutch games, as well as finish in the Consistency top 30, he is a player that is a perfect streaming option against bad defenses, and this matchup suits him well.  The Panthers allowed 2903 yards to wide receivers, as well as 17 touchdowns and 230 catches to the position.  Jay Cutler being the starter does not concern me in this matchup at all. 

 

Week 11

Top 36 on bye:  Kelvin Benjamin, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Pierre Garcon, Mike Evans

Week 11 Target:  Cole Beasley vs. Eagles

Beasley was our 33rd most consistent wide receiver in 2016, and did some of his best work on the road against bad defenses as three of his seven Clutch Games came against them.  The Eagles lost some parts off of an already bad secondary, and replaced them mostly with rookies.  The club did bring in Ronald Darby from Buffalo in a recent trade, but I am not sure that is enough to fill the holes.  Philly allowed the third most points to wideouts in 2016 (3001), along with 200 catches and 18 touchdowns, as well as the third most fantasy points to the position.  With Dez Bryant’s recent issues with injuries, Beasley could become valuable much sooner than this week, but Week 11 sets up nicely for him. 

Week 11 Target:  Dede Westbrook vs. Browns 

Much like the aforementioned Kenny Golloday, Dede Westbrook has looked sharp this preseason.  I look for him to be a big part of the offense, no matter who is throwing the football in Jacksonville this season.  Once again, being a rookie, he has no Consistency data, and more than likely will be more inconsistent than most, due to the QB situation, but hopefully that will be sorted out by Week 11.  I still like him to be a solid matchup play.  Cleveland will be better on defense, but the secondary still figures to be weak. The Browns gave up 249.8 yards per game in the air, which technically puts them in the average defensive category.  Despite being labeled average in our formula, the team allowed 53 completions of 20+ yards, along with eight going for 40+, and allowing overall a 7.3 average per catch.  I think there are numbers to be had here, and Westbrook will be a nice option if you are missing someone in the final bye week of the year. 

{/mprestriction}

Bob Lung guides you through the Perfectly Consistent Draft with the help of FantasyPros.com Draft Simulator and the Tier Draft List in the 2017 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide! Follow him on Twitter @bob_lung

In our continuing series of giving you guidance on how to draft a perfect team (as per the FantasyPros rankings) and consistent team (from Big Guy Fantasy Sports Consistency Tools), we take a look at drafting from the No. 9 position in a 12-team PPR snake draft.

Fantasy Draft Day can be one of most exciting or most horrifying days in a Fantasy owner’s life each year! It’s exciting for those who prepare by spending hours of going through magazines, websites, etc. It’s horrifying for those who don’t have time to prep because LIFE gets in the way.

Well, worry no more, my friends! I’m here to help you give you a winning draft, REGARDLESS of the position that you choose from!

My friends at FantasyPros have some great tools to help you in your Fantasy Football draft preparation. One of them is the Draft Simulator. I am going to use this tool in conjunction with a tool from the Big Guy Fantasy Sports site called the Tier Draft List. The Tier Draft List is a one page Excel file that groups each position by Tier (RB1, RB2, etc.) and then separates the Tier into Grade A, B, C and D. Each Tier correlates to an Expected Consistency Rating or how consistent that player should be in 2017. This is explained in the Guide.

By utilizing the Draft Simulator, I will perform a mock draft from each position and present the results as ranked by the FantasyPros expert rankings. Upon presenting that the mock draft results are ranked #1 by FantasyPros, I will also show you why it’s a great draft because of the consistency ratings of the players I drafted.

We start with a mock draft from position: PICK # 9

{mprestriction ids="10,11,13"}

The Results

Below is the embed code from the FantasyPros site showing the results:

 

As you can see from the results, the team drafted ranked #1 by the FantasyPros expert rankings. And while, that’s certainly important that our drafted team scores more points than any other team, it’s also important that the players are consistently scoring those points.

Roster with Consistency Rankings

Pick # Player Position Tier Draft ECR    
1.9 Jordy Nelson, GB WR WR1A 80%    
2.4 Dez Bryant, DAL WR WR1A 80%    
3.9 Keenan Allen, LAC WR WR1B 75%    
4.4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB QB1A 80%    
5.9 Greg Olsen, CAR TE TE1A 70%    
6.4 Danny Woodhead, BAL RB RB2B 60%    
7.9 Ty Montgomery, GB RB RB2B 60% 72% Starters
8.4 Tevin Coleman, ATL RB RB2A 65%    
9.9 Marvin Jones, DET WR WR4C 55%    
10.4 C.J. Prosise, SEA RB RB4D 55%    
11.9 Derrick Henry, TEN RB RB3C 60%    
12.4 Matthew Stafford, DET QB QB2A 65%    
13.9 Houston Texans DEF        
14.4 Kenny Golladay, DET RB RB5D 50%    
15.9 Cairo Santos, KC K     58% Bench

Overall, the consistency is very good for this team. The Starters overall consistency is 72%! That’s outstanding! If your starters can average over 65%, that’s a solid team. The Bench scoring a 58% consistency average is good, but not great based on the fourth place finish. (Note: There is no consistency ratings for Kickers and Defense).

So, let’s break down the starters.

STARTERS

One thing that I always stress to Fantasy owners is to make sure that you draft your CORE starters (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE) within the first seven rounds (depending on your league starter lineup). Many will argue and throw out their “crazy” strategies like ZERO-RB or four straight WR’s or no QB’s until Round 8! Whatever! Don’t be that person!

The starters all have a grade of Tier 1-3 and Grade of A or B. 

When you get near the end of the first round, the doubling up on top consistent receivers can be key. This time, though, I tripled up! At Pick #9, I took Jordy Nelson and then grabbed Dez Bryant in Round 2 and followed that with Keenan Allen in the third round! That’s three WR1 picks! While this limits the running backs, a solid combo of Danny Woodhead, Ty Montgomery and Tevin Coleman should provide enough consistency to keep the starters overall numbers over 70%. In addition, by adding top consistent players like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Olsen and you have a well-rounded starting core.

This is very important to try and get these tiers for your top seven starters.

In summary, this is an excellent draft for starters with a #1 ranking by FantasyPros and a consistency rating of 72%.

BENCH

Drafting a solid and consistent bench is just as important as your starters. Yes, there will be underperformers and injuries, but by having a consistent bench when they’re playing gives you depth for possible trades to improve your starters, in case one of them get injured.

In this draft, I have covered a backup to all of the important positions.

In summary, the FantasyPros ranking was #4 overall, but more important is the 58% bench consistency rating. Which isn’t great, but you can easily improve this on the waiver wire during the season!

OVERALL

The FantasyPros ranking of 97 out of 100 and an A+ rating says it all! This is an excellent draft, both in total points and consistency!

If you’re interested more in the Tier Draft List and Fantasy Football Consistency, go to www.BigGuyFantasySports.com and we will help you improve your Fantasy teams in 2017!

{/mprestriction}

Fantasy Football 2017

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Big Guy Fantasy Sports Network

The BGFS Show

In the latest episode of the Big Guy Fantasy Sports Show the guys recap the PGA Championship and take a look at the upcoming Wyndham Championship. They then touch upon some big news in the NFL pertaining to Zeke Elliots suspension as well as the trades of Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews. The show wraps up with some baseball talk where the guys talk about Stanton's impressive power display and take a look at some division races with the playoffs a little more than a month away.

Consistency Cast

Bob Lung is on vacation, but that won't stop he & Nate Miller from bringing you another episode of Consistency Cast loaded with Fantasy Football analysis. This time around, the guys welcome Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec / FNTSY Network) to the conversation to get his take on all things Dallas Cowboys, especially Ezekiel Elliott. FANTRAX RADIO - The New Home for Fantasy Sports Talk!!!

Fantasy Baseball 2017

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Ron Rigney brings close to 20 years of playing fantasy sports, in all different formats to the BGFS team. A...

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Mike Nease is a member of the FSWA and has been playing the game since 1985, while also writing about...

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