Kaz Kalita and Adam Sutton are teaming up to bring the Top Daily NBA Plays!

 

Friday is finally here! We head into the weekend with a solid 11-game slate to attack and there are plenty of prime situations to target tonight as a result. 

The Hornets, Wizards, Cavaliers, and Clippers all played last night, with the remaining teams playing their first game out of the All-Star break. There are a few games with bloated projected totals of 220 points, so you’ll want to be sure to have exposure to those contests as there should be lots of fantasy scoring. 

This article will not only will we suggest players worth targeting, but we also hope to teach you the mitigating factors that go into identifying specific players as well as overall roster construction. When playing DFS NBA games, it is crucial that you make every effort to pay attention to the news as the day unfolds as any injury or rest situations could shift the foundation of your strategy for the evening. Let’s look at some DFS NBA FanDuel Top Daily Plays.

Point Guard

Point guard features Damian Lillard ($9,100), Chris Paul ($8,900), and Kemba Walker ($8,700) at the top, with Paul being the preferred play. The Rockets host the Timberwolves in a game that sports a total of 226 points, so there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to be had here tonight. Lillard finds himself in a tough matchup on the road, but he can be considered in tournaments as his ownership levels should be depressed. Walker is a perpetual tournament play as he has big upside, but much like tonight, his price typically keeps him out of the cash game conversation.

{mprestriction ids="14,15,16"} 

Kyrie Irving ($7,900) is scoring dependent for a lot of his value, but with his price below $8,000, he can be considered across all formats in a plus matchup against Detroit. Kyle Lowry ($7,900) is a phenomenal tournament option tonight against the Bucks, as the point guard came into the All-Star break rolling. This is an above-average matchup for Lowry and his price point leaves him with plenty of profit potential. Dennis Smith Jr. ($7,000) should be on your tournament radar this evening as the Mavericks get a boost in pace against the Lakers. Goran Dragic ($6,700) rounds out this tier as he gets a good matchup coupled with a boost in pace against the Pelicans. He tends to fly under the radar at times, so be sure to get some exposure here in tournaments where you can. 

 

Shooting Guard

James Harden ($11,400) checks in as the highest projected play tonight, regardless of position. He will chew up 19% of your available salary cap, but the upside is immense. This is a solid matchup against Minnesota and I look for a monster line from Harden as a result. Victor Oladipo ($10,000) remains priced for his upside, but you always need to be cognizant of his downside as well. The matchup is a strong one and with Oladipo coming off of a couple of days’ worth of rest, he could be primed for a big outing tonight at home. There’s some rest concern with Bradley Beal ($9,000) as he played 35 minutes in Cleveland last night, but the volume should be there tonight against the Hornets. 

Tyreke Evans ($7,900) is a nightly threat for a triple-double and with him back in the fold for Memphis, feel free to fire him up in tournaments against the Cavaliers tonight. DeMar DeRozan ($7,900) is priced in such a way that you need to consider him, but the matchup leaves a bit to be desired. He’s a strong tournament play at this price, as there’s profit potential at these salary levels. Lou Williams ($7,000) played 33 minutes against the Warriors last night, but it’s hard to eschew him this evening in a prime matchup against the Suns. He’s a preferred play tonight as he should have no issues hitting his current value threshold (33 FDP). 

On the cheaper side of things, Tyrone Wallace ($3,500) deserves some consideration as a pure punt tonight if Avery Bradley remains on the shelf.

 

Small Forward

LeBron James ($11,300) picked up where he left off prior to the All-Star break, with the veteran star producing 56.8 FDP last night against the Wizards. His price slipped $300 ahead of a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, so be sure to include him in a lineup or two in tournament play. Much like James, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) finds himself in a difficult matchup, but he too is always worthy of GPP consideration. Jimmy Butler ($9,200) is an elite play across all formats as he gets a good matchup in a contest that sports a high projected total. 

The middle tier starts with Otto Porter Jr. ($7,600), who is likely looking at playing time in the upper-30s in what should be a competitive game. He’s got a low floor, but there’s fantasy upside of six times his current salary tonight. Harrison Barnes ($6,800) does little outside of scoring, but the matchup and bump in pace puts him on the radar for GPP contests. Josh Jackson ($5,900) shifted back to the bench with the return of Devin Booker in the final game before the All-Star break, but he still produced 34.4 FDP in a tough matchup against the Jazz. This is a good matchup for him tonight against the Clippers, so I don’t mind targeting him in tournaments, just know he possesses a low floor. 

Keep an eye on the status of Ricky Rubio as his potential absence would likely open the door for Royce O’Neale ($4,600) to see extended run against the Trail Blazers.

  

Power Forward

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,700) and Blake Griffin ($8,400) are neck and neck at the power forward position, but I’ll give the slightest of edges to Griffin due to price. As always, you can always attack these situations by splitting your exposure when constructing lineups. Nikola Mirotic ($7,500) is in a tough matchup against the Heat, but he should see plenty of volume and thus remains in the tournament conversation. 

Dwight Powell ($6,700) is an interesting tournament play in a good matchup against the Lakers tonight. Powell scored 31+ FDP in four straight heading into the All-Star break and while he’s expensive, he could squeeze out production of five times his current salary. Taj Gibson ($5,400) doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he should be in line for plenty of playing time and thus can be considered for your cash game lineups. 

Montrezl Harrell ($4,500) continues to be an excellent per minute producer, but he just doesn’t see enough playing time on a consistent basis. If you need the salary relief in cash games you can go here, but he’s highly unlikely to see 20 minutes, so it’s a risky proposition if you go that route. 

 

Center

Anthony Davis ($11,700) rolled into the All-Star break absolutely scorching hot, as he scored 91.4 FDP, 58.5 FDP, and 81.5 FDP in his last three games. This is a less than desirable matchup against the Heat, but you can’t remove all of your exposure to someone with legitimate 70-80 FDP upside on a nightly basis. Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is available at a major discount to Davis and while he doesn’t sport the same upside, he does find himself in an elite fantasy environment in which he should be able to produce. Andre Drummond ($9,300) is an elite tournament play tonight, despite a tough matchup on deck against the Celtics. 

DeAndre Jordan ($8,000) is a decent flier in tournaments against a weak team and he continued to produce last night against the Warriors, which is an encouraging sign. Julius Randle ($7,300) is a great tournament play at home tonight against the Mavericks. Dallas ranks dead last in terms of team rebounding rate and they are in the bottom third of the league against opposing centers in regards to fantasy production allowed. Myles Turner ($7,000) has been inconsistent this month, but he’s a solid option for tournaments who should go low owned. The Hawks are a poor rebounding team and are subpar against big men overall, so the matchup certainly favors Turner as well. 

There aren’t any great options on the cheaper side of things tonight, so I’d focus on the higher-priced players this evening.

 

{/mprestriction}

Bob Lung takes you to the next level with xConsistency and how it can help separate the Quarterbacks with similar consistency and identify who is more valuable to your Fantasy teams.  You can follow Bob on Twitter at @bob_lung.

Consistency in Fantasy Football is a very important factor in helping Fantasy owners make more informed decisions on who to draft and who to start/sit during the season. If you’re new to the Consistency concept in Fantasy Football, I highly recommend reading some of the Introduction articles located on the home page of www.BigGuyFantasySports.com. If you’re already a reader and follower of the site, then I would like to introduce you to a new twist to the Consistency world: xConsistency.

The xConsistency is similar to xERA in baseball as it’s identifying the “TRUE” Consistency value of the player. The formula is as follows:

               (Total Fantasy Points Scored / Total Games Played) X Clutch Rate

The xConsistency factor will separate two players with similar Consistency but different Total Points Score due to either fewer games or Clutch performances with lesser points scored. For example: let’s take a look at two players last year with similar Clutch Rates:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

3

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

4

16.97

4


Both Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz earned a 69% Clutch Rate in 2017. With Wentz missing three games, the obvious difference in Total Points Scored makes it look like Wilson is a much better Fantasy player. However, the xConsistency calculation shows that Wentz has an xConsistency factor of 16.97, which is quite close to Wilson’s xConsistency factor of 17.28. The xConsistency annualizes Wentz’s points scored into 16 games showing that he’s just as valuable in Fantasy.

Now, we’re going to look at a group of quarterbacks that are currently ranked between third and 10th in xConsistency and pick out some items that may surprise you.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

4

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

5

16.97

4

Matthew Stafford

338.10

6

12

16

75%

3

15.85

5

Ben Roethlisberger

315.25

9

10

15

67%

7

14.08

6

Tom Brady

351.60

2

10

16

63%

9

13.84

7

Jameis Winston

259.70

18

9

13

69%

6

13.78

8

Alex Smith

342.60

4

8

15

53%

15

12.11

9

Jimmy Garoppolo

108.10

34

4

6

67%

8

12.07

10


First off, Clutch Rate is not always the end all for determining Fantasy value. As you will note from Matthew Stafford. Stafford was the most Consistent quarterback in 2017 (who played in at least 12 + games). His 75% Clutch Rate led the quarterbacks. However, the xConsistency shows that since his Total Points were not as high on a per game basis, his xConsistency is less than Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz.  On the other side of that, Alex Smith only had a 53% Clutch Rate, but his Total Points scored made up for some that discrepancy and he ended the year ranked ninth in xConsistency.

As I mentioned before about players missing games and how the xConsistency factor annualizes the player for 16 games and shows his true value if he played a full season, Jameis Winston having an xConsistency factor very close to Tom Brady may surprise folks. Winston has continued to improve his xConsistency since his rookie year and is actually ranked 12th in xConsistency over the past three years.

One last item to note in the chart above is Jimmy Garoppolo. His end-of-year performance has many Fantasy owners drooling over his potential ion 2018. The xConsistency shows that his numbers annualized over 16 games ranks him 10th for 2017. Impressive, but not Top 5! Be careful, not to reach too high for him in 2018.

Now let’s add in the two players who were having big years but missed the rest of the season due to injuries. As you can see, DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers take the top two spots. The biggest surprise is the extreme xConsistency for Watson. It’s almost five points ahead of Rodgers and over six points ahead of Wilson. Aaron Rodgers can and will maintain this kind of xConsistency in 2018. The biggest question is can Watson maintain his? I have seen ADP’s of 2.10 for Watson and 3.05 for Rodgers so far in 2018. I’m sorry but there’s no way, I can take ANY quarterback in the second round. Watson’s value is too much for me, even though his xConsistency shows potential.

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Deshaun Watson

191.85

27

6

7

86%

1

23.57

1

Aaron Rodgers

154.35

31

6

7

86%

2

18.96

2

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

4

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

5

16.97

4

Matthew Stafford

338.10

6

12

16

75%

3

15.85

5

Ben Roethlisberger

315.25

9

10

15

67%

7

14.08

6

Tom Brady

351.60

2

10

16

63%

9

13.84

7

Jameis Winston

259.70

18

9

13

69%

6

13.78

8

Alex Smith

342.60

4

8

15

53%

15

12.11

9

Jimmy Garoppolo

108.10

34

4

6

67%

8

12.07

10


Here is the list of the Top 40 Quarterbacks (ranked by xConsistency) for 2017:

 

Player Name

Total Points

Rank

Total CG

Total GP

CR

Rank

xCon

Rank

Deshaun Watson

191.85

27

6

7

86%

1

23.57

1

Aaron Rodgers

154.35

31

6

7

86%

2

18.96

2

Russell Wilson

400.75

1

11

16

69%

4

17.28

3

Carson Wentz

319.70

8

9

13

69%

5

16.97

4

Matthew Stafford

338.10

6

12

16

75%

3

15.85

5

Ben Roethlisberger

315.25

9

10

15

67%

7

14.08

6

Tom Brady

351.60

2

10

16

63%

9

13.84

7

Jameis Winston

259.70

18

9

13

69%

6

13.78

8

Alex Smith

342.60

4

8

15

53%

15

12.11

9

Jimmy Garoppolo

108.10

34

4

6

67%

8

12.07

10

Kirk Cousins

342.10

5

9

16

56%

11

11.97

11

Philip Rivers

327.55

7

9

16

56%

12

11.46

12

Dak Prescott

312.95

11

9

16

56%

13

10.95

13

Jared Goff

306.55

12

8

15

53%

16

10.83

14

Carson Palmer

129.15

32

4

7

57%

10

10.52

15

Blake Bortles

299.55

13

9

16

56%

14

10.48

16

Case Keenum

280.35

15

8

15

53%

17

9.91

17

Drew Brees

314.10

10

8

16

50%

18

9.82

18

Cam Newton

348.50

3

7

16

44%

24

9.58

19

C.J. Beathard

113.10

33

3

6

50%

19

9.43

20

Matt Ryan

287.05

14

8

16

50%

20

8.97

21

Josh McCown

251.70

21

6

13

46%

23

8.91

22

Marcus Mariota

259.80

17

7

15

47%

22

8.14

23

Sam Bradford

30.80

47

1

2

50%

21

7.70

24

Andy Dalton

263.90

16

7

16

44%

25

7.26

25

Tyrod Taylor

258.65

19

6

15

40%

26

6.90

26

Blaine Gabbert

80.50

39

2

5

40%

27

6.44

27

DeShone Kizer

238.60

24

6

15

40%

28

6.36

28

Derek Carr

256.40

20

5

15

33%

29

5.64

29

Jacoby Brissett

249.90

22

5

16

31%

32

4.84

30

Ryan Fitzpatrick

87.75

35

2

6

33%

30

4.83

31

Brian Hoyer

80.95

38

2

6

33%

31

4.45

32

Eli Manning

245.00

23

4

15

27%

34

4.41

33

Joe Flacco

227.45

25

5

16

31%

33

4.41

34

Trevor Siemian

166.95

29

3

11

27%

35

4.10

35

Brett Hundley

154.80

30

3

12

25%

36

3.23

36

Mitchell Trubisky

167.75

28

3

13

23%

40

2.97

37


Summary

The xConsistency formula and 2017 chart above helps provide a more truer value for Consistency and its role in helping Fantasy owners find a new edge in their draft planning. The Clutch Rate isn’t dead by any stretch and should continue to be used in your analysis during your draft prep and weekly start/sit decisions. I’d love to hear your feedback regarding the xConsistency calculation. You can hit me up on Twitter @bob_lung or email me at bob@bigguyfantasyports.com. Thanks as always for reading and following!

Kaz Kalita and Adam Sutton are teaming up to bring the Top Daily NBA Plays!

The All-Star break is over and we are greeted with a six-game slate after a long week off. We’ve got about a six-week stretch here to grind hard before things get somewhat difficult towards the end of the regular season. 

Rest obviously isn’t an issue tonight, so there are no concerns here. 

This article will not only will we suggest players worth targeting, but we also hope to teach you the mitigating factors that go into identifying specific players as well as overall roster construction. When playing DFS NBA games, it is crucial that you make every effort to pay attention to the news as the day unfolds as any injury or rest situations could shift the foundation of your strategy for the evening. Let’s look at some DFS NBA FanDuel Top Daily Plays.

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($12,000) headlines the position tonight and he’s the top option if you’re wanting to spend up. The issue, of course, is roster construction as he chews up 20% of your available salary cap. Stephen Curry ($9,300) can be had for nearly $3,000 less than Westbrook, but you worry a bit about the blowout risk against the Clippers. Kemba Walker ($9,100) rounds out the top tier and he’s an excellent tournament play at home against the Nets.

{mprestriction ids="14,15,16"} 

Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,000) can be considered in tournament play as he draws a neutral matchup on the road against the Hornets. He’s got zero value left in his salary, however, so I wouldn’t force the issue. Tomas Satoransky ($5,900) rolled into the All-Star break in a groove, having scored 30+ FDP in three straight, including two over 38 FDP. The matchup against George Hill is less than ideal, but if this game stays competitive he should see enough run to pay off his salary. 

On the cheaper side of things, D.J. Augustin ($5,400) and Shelvin Mack ($4,300) remain in a frustrating timeshare. Augustin’s price has put him in a tough position to use, but Mack is a viable punt for cash games. Austin Rivers ($5,100) is an acceptable tournament option against the Warriors tonight as he should be looking at 30+ minutes of playing time this evening.

 

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,500) is very expensive, but the upside is clearly there as he continues to shoulder the load for the Wizards until John Wall returns. He’s too expensive for cash games, but he’s an elite tournament play. Zach LaVine ($7,100) is the epitome of a GPP only play this evening as he works his way back into form for the Bulls. Lou Williams might be the preferred option of the three options listed here as he draws a strong matchup on the road against the Warriors. He continues to produce in spite of the various roster changes and he can be considered across all formats as a result. 

The middle tier is littered with viable options, but unfortunately, they are all high-risk high-reward plays, thus making them tournament only picks. Nicolas Batum ($6,300), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,200), D’Angelo Russell ($6,100), and Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,000) are all playable in tournaments. As always, I have them listed in order of salary, but I’d rank them in the exact opposite order in terms of preference. 

Dwyane Wade ($4,700) should see a bump in his minutes as he continues to assimilate back into the Heat’s rotation and I love targeting him at this price as a result. While this isn’t the best matchup, he should be able to justify that salary as he commands a larger role with his old team. 

 

Small Forward

LeBron James ($11,600) and the Cavaliers host a very important game right out of the break, and I have James ranked as the top overall option as a result. There’s an element of competitive sports that simply cannot be projected or plugged into a spreadsheet and this is one of those instances for James. He appears rejuvenated with the roster overhaul and after a couple of days to rest, I look for big things from him down the stretch and it all starts tonight in a big game against the Wizards. Kevin Durant ($10,700) is tournament viable, but a blowout risk exists, so I’d keep my exposure in check. Paul George ($9,500) rounds out the top tier and he ranks third among my preference of the top three plays. George is too expensive for cash games, but he’s a decent GPP play. 

The middle tier starts with Otto Porter Jr. ($7,500), who is likely looking at playing time in the upper-30s in what should be a competitive game. He’s got a low floor, but there’s fantasy upside of six times his current salary tonight. Michael Beasley ($7,000) is dealing with a right ear irritation so be sure to check on his status, but assuming he’s good to go, he’s a fine play against the Magic. DeMarre Carroll ($6,100) rounds out the middle tier and he is a great tournament play against the Hornets. 

The position is currently devoid of any compelling options on the cheaper side of things, so I’d focus on the above options tonight. 

 

Power Forward

Ben Simmons ($9,000) leads the way at power forward tonight and he’s playable across all formats tonight against the Bulls. He scored at least 40 FDP in five straight heading into the break and carries a solid floor due to his ability to contribute across all statistical categories. Draymond Green ($8,600) is always in play, but unless there’s a missing star, he’s better suited for tournaments. 

The middle tier is much like shooting guard in that there are several viable options in this range, but none stick out as incredible plays. The way to attack scenarios like this is to create multiple lineups and interchange a couple of these similarly priced options around your core lineup. Dario Saric ($6,700) and Tobias Harris ($6,700) are fine tournament plays, but their floors keep them out of the cash game conversation. Zach Randolph ($6,500) would be a prime GPP option, but he didn’t play in the Kings’ final game before the break, so there’s some risk here to be aware of. Markieff Morris ($6,000) rounds out this tier and he might be my favorite in terms of preference. He should be involved plenty in a game that is likely to be competitive and Morris has upside of five to six times his current salary. 

 

Center

Joel Embiid ($10,200) is the clear top option at the position tonight as he draws a great matchup against the Bulls. You’ll likely have a tough decision when building your core tonight as it comes down to Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, and Joel Embiid. The order of preference would be James, Embiid, and then Westbrook. Dwight Howard ($9,000) is an elite tournament play in a phenomenal matchup against the Nets tonight. 

DeAndre Jordan ($8,100) exploded for 60.1 FDP in the Clippers’ finale before the All-Star break, but I wouldn’t expect many of those in the future. That being said, he is a decent flier in tournaments, although I wouldn’t force the issue. Enes Kanter ($7,500) is available at a discount to Jordan and he finds himself in a great matchup against a poor rebounding team in the Magic. 

There aren’t any great options on the cheaper side of things tonight, so I’d focus on the higher-priced players this evening.

{/mprestriction}

Fantasy Baseball 2018

Fantasy Baseball 2018: Strategy – Protection Is A Good Thing

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Fantasy Baseball On-Deck Circle: MLB Prospects – Spring Training Edition - AL

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Fantasy Football 2017

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Fantasy Football Consistency: Standard Scoring Differences – TE

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FANTASY FOOTBALL: 2017 Consistency Awards - TE

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Bob Lung passes out the Consistency Awards to the tight ends for 2017...

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Bob Lung passes out the Consistency Awards to the wide receivers for 2017...

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Bob Lung passes out the Consistency Awards to the running backs for 2017...

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Bob Lung passes out the Consistency Awards to the quarterbacks for 2017 Fantasy...

Consistency Week in Review – TE – Week 16

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Consistency Week in Review – RB – Week 16

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BGFS Daily Fantasy Blast

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Intro to Clutch Players

Who is Bob Lung and why does he care about Clutch Players?

Who is Bob Lung and why does he care about Clutch Players?

If this is the first time that you have heard about Clutch players and how...

The History of Consistency and Clutch Players

The History of Consistency and Clutch Players

The Head-to-Head (H2H) format in Fantasy football leads to the need for consistency. If you...

Key Terms

Key Terms

I felt it was important to define some obvious and not-so-obvious terms that will be...

Improve Your Record with Consistency

Improve Your Record with Consistency

The Clutch Games system was created to show how building your team with more consistent...

Rookies vs Consistency - 2018

Rookies vs Consistency - 2018

Bob Lung presents the facts and figures on why drafting Rookies can be can very...

Big Guy Fantasy Experts

Colby Conway

Colby Conway

Colby Conway has been playing fantasy sports for almost 10 years. He writes for Fantasy Alarm, as well as being...

Ron Rigney

Ron Rigney

Ron Rigney brings close to 20 years of playing fantasy sports, in all different formats to the BGFS team. A...

Van Lee

Van Lee

The man, the myth, and the legend that is Van Lee continues to grow every day. Whether it’s complaining loudly...

Mike Nease

Mike Nease

Mike Nease is a member of the FSWA and has been playing the game since 1985, while also writing about...

Kaz Kalita

Kaz Kalita

Welcome to Big Guy Fantasy Sports, Kaz Kalita! Kaz is a member of the FSWA and has been playing fantasy...

Adam Sutton

Adam Sutton

Adam has been playing fantasy sports for 15 years, dating back to when you got your edge by simply reading...

Josh Brickner

Josh Brickner

Josh been playing fantasy football since 1995. When not locked in the grip of his fantasy football addiction, Josh loves...

Matthew Selz

Matthew Selz

Matt has been playing fantasy sports of all kinds for the past 20 years. He mainly has played rotisserie baseball,...

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